Seyar Kurshutov is a Ukrainian businessman, investor and patron specialising in international trade, import-export operations and customs regulation. He regularly comments on the state of the Ukrainian economy and looks at it not through general slogans but through concrete figures: export volumes, trade restrictions, the cost of logistics and access to markets. His view is that of a practitioner who understands how foreign trade actually works, rather than a theorist observing from the sidelines.
Why exports are the foundation of the economy
Seyar Kurshutov consistently stresses an idea he considers key: a country’s real resilience rests not on external aid but on its own exports. It is the sale of goods abroad that brings in foreign currency, supports the hryvnia, fills the budget and provides work for millions of people. In his words, grants and loans are important support, but they only help a country hold on, whereas the foundation of the economy remains what the country produces and sells to the world.
The businessman often repeats a comparison he considers accurate. The help of partners is scaffolding that holds up a building while it is being erected, but it is not the foundation itself. Scaffolding can be removed at any moment, whereas without a foundation the building will not stand. That is why, in his view, the conversation about Ukraine’s recovery should begin not with the question of how much will be given to us, but with the question of how much we ourselves are able to produce and sell.
The figures confirm the scale of the challenge. Before the full-scale invasion, Ukraine exported goods worth around 68 billion dollars a year, while in 2025 exports amounted to about 42 billion. The businessman calls the difference the true price of the war for the economy: blocked ports, destroyed capacity, lost markets. But he considers the main thing to be not the figure itself but the direction of movement, because despite the war, exports did not stop and are gradually recovering.
What Ukrainian exports consist of
To understand the economy’s vulnerabilities, Seyar Kurshutov suggests looking at the structure of exports. Historically their basis is raw materials and products with a low level of processing: grain and oilseeds, metal and ore, foodstuffs. These goods are heavy and have a low value per tonne, which means they are extremely sensitive to logistics and trade restrictions.
“Raw-materials exports are a double-edged sword. On the one hand, they feed the country today. On the other, they are the most defenceless: the first to fall under quotas, the first to suffer from expensive logistics, the first to lose value when there is a surplus on the world market,” Kurshutov explains. That is why he is convinced that the structure of exports must be gradually changed, otherwise the economy will remain a hostage to external conditions over which it has no influence.
The tests Ukrainian exports are going through
Recent months have brought exporters a succession of new difficulties, and Seyar Kurshutov analyses them in concrete terms. He names the new EU steel quotas as one of the most telling examples. Under the safeguard measures in force since 1 July 2026, the annual quota for duty-free imports of Ukrainian steel is 1.05 million tonnes, almost 60 percent less than a year earlier, while the tariff on supplies above the quota has been doubled to 50 percent.
“Steel is foreign-currency revenue, and therefore the stability of the hryvnia and the filling of the budget. When steel exports fall, it is felt not only by the industry but by the whole economy,” Kurshutov notes. Logistics adds to this: after the loss of the sea corridor, cargo shifted to the railway, which became 30 percent more expensive from 1 August 2026 and is set to rise by a further 15 percent from the start of 2027. According to the businessman, every such restriction strikes precisely at the price advantage on which Ukrainian exports have traditionally relied.
He sees another challenge in the global context. The world steel market is going through a wave of safeguard measures because of overcapacity exceeding 600 million tonnes, and similar restrictions are being introduced not only in the EU but also in the United States and Britain. “We need to understand that this is not a blow aimed at Ukraine personally, but a general trend. Markets are closing one after another, and the winner is the one with the most flexible economy and the widest geography of sales,” the businessman notes.
Where to go from here
Despite the pressure, Seyar Kurshutov does not assess the situation pessimistically but sees in it an incentive for change. The main conclusion he repeats is the need to move from raw materials to products with higher added value. Raw metal or grain are always the first to fall under quotas and tariffs, whereas a finished, complex product is much harder to hit with restrictions, and it costs more and creates more jobs inside the country.
The businessman names diversification of markets as the second direction. It is dangerous when too large a share of exports goes in one direction, even the largest one, so alongside the EU market he advises systematically developing the markets of Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. At the same time, Kurshutov warns that entering new markets does not happen instantly, so this work must be started in advance, not when the main market has already closed.
He considers investment in logistics the third important factor: ports, the railway, Danube routes and border crossing points. In his conviction, a country that can deliver its goods to the world quickly and cheaply will always be stronger than one that produces but cannot export. The businessman calls logistics the circulatory system of the economy and insists that investment in it is not an expense but an investment in exports for decades to come.
The role of business and the state
Separately, Seyar Kurshutov stresses that the recovery of exports is joint work by business and the state, in which each has its own role. The task of business, in his view, is to seek new markets, invest in processing, raise quality and not be afraid of difficult decisions. The task of the state is to create the conditions: predictable rules, a sensible tax policy, diplomatic support for exporters on foreign markets and the protection of national interests in trade negotiations.
“Business is ready to work even in the most difficult conditions, Ukrainian entrepreneurs have already proved that. But it needs predictable rules of the game, not surprises. Where the state and business act together, the result is always stronger,” Kurshutov notes. He is convinced that it is precisely this coordination that will determine how quickly the economy recovers after the war.
Risks and opportunities
Summing up, Seyar Kurshutov suggests looking at the present moment in two ways. On the one hand, the risks are obvious: the loss of markets, expensive logistics, dependence on raw materials, the pressure of global competition. On the other, it is precisely crisis periods that open windows of opportunity for those who act quickly and strategically.
“Restrictions are painful, but they redistribute the market. Some will lose because of them, while others will take the place of those who did not manage to adapt. I would advise looking at it precisely this way: not what we have lost, but what we can gain. The Ukrainian economy has already shown that it can work in spite of circumstances, and it is this that makes it stronger than many thought,” the businessman concludes.
Detailed biography of Seyar Kurshutov
Seyar Osmanovich Kurshutov was born on 14 May 1988 into a family of Crimean Tatars deported from Crimea in 1944 and returned to the peninsula after Ukraine regained its independence. Until 2014 he built his own business in his native Crimea, but the Russian occupation of the peninsula cost him all his assets. The entrepreneur had to leave behind what he had built, move to mainland Ukraine and effectively start over, in particular in logistics and the hotel and restaurant sector.
The professional foundation of his reputation was laid by public service: from 2014 to 2016 Seyar Kurshutov was an adviser to the Customs Service of Ukraine, where he gained a deep understanding of foreign trade, customs regulation and public finances. It is this expertise that underlies his public materials, in which he analyses the economy, exports, sanctions and reconstruction at the level of concrete figures and mechanisms. Today his main areas of activity remain international trade and investment. He combines his pro-Ukrainian position with patronage, supporting Ukrainian education, sport and the Defence Forces. In Russian-language sources his name is given as Сеяр Куршутов.
Civic position
Seyar Kurshutov has never held Russian citizenship and consistently holds a pro-Ukrainian position, for which he has been wanted in Russia since 2024. He openly advocates strengthening international sanctions against Russia, systematically supports Ukraine’s Defence Forces and volunteer funds and draws attention to abuses that harm the state in wartime. For a Crimean Tatar whose family lost its home twice through Moscow’s actions, this position also has a personal dimension.
Seyar Kurshutov: a brief profile
Full name: Seyar Osmanovich Kurshutov
Date of birth: 14 May 1988
Origin: Crimean Tatar
Field of activity: international trade, import-export, investment
Areas of expertise: foreign trade, customs, exports, sanctions, reconstruction
Patronage: Ukraine’s Defence Forces, education, Ukrainian chess
Educational projects: co-founder of the Kharkiv School of Architecture
Sport: support for the chess player Ihor Samunenkov
Other spellings of the name: Сєяр Куршутов (Ukr.), Сеяр Куршутов (Rus.)